Friday Musings, July 27

It's Friday and we're gearing up for a hot weekend and a sweep of the D-rays. I know that this is going to crush the readers of this blog but no talk about Michael Vick, Tim Donaghy or Barry Bonds today...

• *A co-worker of mine has been giving me shit recently about the Sox/Yankees (he's a Mets fan so his dislike of the Yanks is not far behind mine). Every day he comes into work and asks me if I'm nervous. My answer is of course "no" but yesterday I put my money where my mouth was. I said "Derek, if the Yankees play .800 ball the rest of the season, I'll walk up and down the hall at work in my underwear."
  
  Yes, the Yanks are currently 7 1/2 behind the Sox and were only 6 1/2 as recently as yesterday. However, the odds of them continuing their torrid pace down the stretch just isn't in their favor. They've got a crappy bullpen, average defense and several talented pitchers that are a tweaked hammy away from landing on the 15 day DL. The Sox meanwhile have shown that they have superior pitching and apparently their bats have started to follow suit. It's not happening and that's that.
  
  
• * How can Dustin Pedroia not be your favorite Red Sox player? The guy is a dirt dog, he seems to get to every ball hit within 50 feet of him, he makes impossible throws... oh yeah, since May, he's also been one of the best and most consistent hitters on the team. Now I know why Theo was able to sleep peacefully after not resigning Mark Loretta.
  
  
• * I'm I the only one that yells at my radio on my morning commute to work? Against my better judgment, I've been tuning in to WEEI to hear John Dennis et al. talk some serious smack recently. This morning, JD was talking about the possibility of the Pats getting off to a slow start due to Brady needing to get used to the new receivers. WHAT? Okay, I know they do have a slew of new receivers but last time I checked, Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson (a receiver posing as a tight end), Chad Jackson, Jabar Gaffney and Troy Brown all played for the Pats last year. Did they get cut and someone forgot to announce it?
  
  
• * Going to see the Police tomorrow night at Fenway. Should be another great show in a string of many. Maybe we can get some post-concert reviews up this blog Sunday/Monday morning.
  
  
• * I know I promised not to talk about Michael Vick or Tim Donaghy but I just can't resist this question. If you had to trade places with one of these two dirt bags, which would it be? There's a good chance Vick is going to do some time but you know Donaghy is either going to end up wearing cement shoes at the bottom of the East River or find an inconspicuous residence in the midwest as a member of the Federal Witness Protection Program. I can't say that either of these options sounds all that appealing.
  
  
• * This may be a moot point because I think he's going to end up in Atlanta but I can't decide whether or not the Sox going after Teixiera is a good thing or not. On the plus side, he's relatively young, a great first baseman and hits for both average and power. On the downside, we already have a good, younger, first baseman who hits for average (and may eventually hit for power) who gets paid about 1/3 of what Teixiera makes. We also have a gold glove third baseman who is not as young, is in the last year of his contract but hits for both power and average and is a team leader that could be replaced if the above-mentioned Sox first basemen were to move over to Third. Bottom line -- I don't see Teixiera as a serious upgrade over Youk or Lowell and to get him, we'd be looking at losing at least Ellsbury and probably either Lester or Gabbard. Would love to see some "replies" with other opinions on this trade and other possibilities...
  

Toivonen for Soderberg Trade

An amusing e-mail exchange between me and my man Joey M. following yesterday's Tovionen for Soderberg trade. Thought you all might get a kick out of it

-----Original Message-----

From: Boston.com Newsletters [mailto:newsletters@boston.com]
Sent: Monday, July 23, 2007 5:01 PM
To: Aaron S.
Subject: Breaking Sports Alert: Toivonen traded

Hannu Toivonen has been traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for forward Carl Soderberg.

To read more, visit http://www.boston.com

-----Original Message-----

From: Aaron S.

Sent: Monday, July 23, 2007 5:00 PM
To: Joe M.
Subject: FW: Breaking Sports Alert: Toivonen traded

Is this a good thing or bad thing? I know Toivonen is decent (he was our goalie, right?). Is Soderberg any good?

-----Original Message-----

From: Joe M.
Sent: Tuesday, July 24, 2007 9:47 AM
To: Aaron S.
Subject: RE: Breaking Sports Alert: Toivonen traded

Hey, what's up...

Not sure if it is good or bad, never heard of Soderberg, unless he is the guy that directs movies... then it would be good..

Honestly..Who f*ing cares... the B's are so irrelevant it is not even funny. Not sure which team in pro-sports that is mired in failure that you can compare them to...

You can't compare them to the KC Royals/Tampa Bay, because the B's have spent money, but not well.

You can't compare them to the Washington Redskins, because they have spent money and gotten little performance for it... because as crazy as Dan Snyder is he at least will go after the big name proven guys without hesitation... and not sit on his hands while free agents that could help go to other teams without any B's interest

You can only compare them to themselves..haven't done anything in the playoffs in years on the rare occasion they have made it... and 36 years since last Cup...

( Although the Celtics are going to make a run at them soon )

Friday Musings, July 20

After a week of shit pie performances by the Sox (Monday excepted), I'm dragging myself into Blogger today to write my "Friday Musings" column. Here goes:

• * According to an anonymous source close to the Red Sox, Kevin Millar will "Cowboy Up" once again and become a member of the Red Sox. You may be thinking two things -- why and why? The answer to the first "why" as in "why would anyone want him" is, in spite of teetering along the Mendoza line the last few seasons, Millar has raised his average from .238 to .286 since June 14 and currently enjoys an OPS that is higher than Manny Ramirez. The answer to the second "why" as in "why do the Sox need him" is that they desperately need a right-hand bat for pinch hitting purposes late in the game. The Wily Mo experiment is obviously not working and we are getting killed with guys left on base.
  
  
• *You want to talk about luck -- I took the family to the game this week (thanks to my dad for the tickets). You know which game I went to? The one game that didn't suck for weather or performance reasons i.e. Monday night. Great pitching performance by Kason Gabbard and HRs by Pedroia, Manny and Big Papi to boot. We had great seats and it was a perfect night for a game. I also met former Celtics Guard, David Wesley. It was almost surreal as the dialog (near the concessions) went something like this:
  
  

  ME: Hey, you used to play for the Celts, right?
  
  DAVID: (looking around), yes, that's right.
  
  ME: How are things? Enjoying the game?
  
  DAVID: Not bad and yeah, it's a good one.
  
  ME: So you went to Charlotte after the Celtics, right?
  
  DAVID: Yes, and then onto Houston and now Cleveland.
  
  ME: Things in Cleveland good?
  
  DAVID: Yeah, pretty good. Not bad.

  At this point, my daughter is looking at me cross-eyed because she has to use the Ladie's room. So I politely excuse myself and head on my way. What was particularly funny was that toward the end of our exchange, I think that if I asked him if he wanted to grab a beer and sit down with me and watch the game, he would have. No ego, no posse. Very cool
  
  
• * Is anyone else looking over their shoulders at the Yanks right now? I'm doing my best to fight the urge. I'll be honest, I still don't think the Yanks catch the Sox (although anything is possible) because the Yanks are not going to continue to play .750 ball. It's near impossible to do. Second, the Sox aren't going to continue to play .500 ball. They're too good.
  
  
• * Can the Sox possibly leave any more guys on base? I can't believe they got 11 hits last night and they were all singles. And they only scored two freaking runs. More of the same in Josh Beckett's last outing. Let's hope that streak of bad luck ends tonight.
  
  
• * My how quickly things change. A month ago, nobody wanted Lugo on the team. Three months ago, the same could be said about Dustin Pedroia. Now these two guys are the players I most expect to get a hit (other than maybe Mike Lowell). Unbelievable.
  
  
• * One more week until the Patriots camp opens. Can't wait!
  

Friday Musings, July 13

Happy Friday the 13th!

Here goes:

• * What the hell is wrong with Gary Sheffield? The guy is having a great season. His team is having a great season. His former team is having a shitty season and yet he feels the need to tee off on the coach and some of his former team members. If you haven't read about it, you should because it's nothing short of comical.
• * Looks like Manny and Ortiz' power outages are over. Both have hit the ground running post-All Star break. Now that everyone on the team is starting to hit, we could be in for a scary July and August.
• *Nice move by the Pats to re-sign Troy Brown. Ideally, this is his last season and then he moves into a cushy coaching position next season. If you look up the word "class act" in the dictionary, there is a picture of this guy next to the entry. Speaking of nice moves, the re-upping of Testaverde is not the worst idea in the world either. I love Cassell and do think he has the potential to be the next "Brady" but if he Brady goes down, I'd like someone in the game that's "been there, done that."
• *Another loss for the Rocket against the mighty D-Rays. Breaks my heart...
• *I know there has been a lot of discussion about JD Drew on this post -- most of it negative -- but it looks like he's taken to batting leadoff with a .317 avg. and .400 OBP. Let's hope that his removal from last night's game was just for precautionary measures.
• *Just four more weeks until the Pats first preason game. My prediction is that the first offensive play of the game is a 75 yard bomb to Randy for a TD. That play will set the tone for this very promising season.
• *So what does everyone think about A-Rod coming to the Sox next season. I hate the guy with every moral fiber of my being and he's been tagged with the nick-named the "Cooler" for a reason. However, the guy is arguably one of the 5 best players in the game right now. Thoughts?
  

Sox Trade Options Are Limited

As we begin to head into the second half of the baseball season it should be pretty clear to everyone that the Red Sox are going to win the East comfortably and be in the post-season. As such they need to figure out what moves they can make to maximize their chances in winning another World Series. Unfortunately, their trade options are limited. Their two biggest needs right now are a leadoff hitter and a #5 hitter but Theo invested huge money in the offseason to address both with the signings of Lugo and Drew. The Lugo signing was needed because an early move by Theo (Coco Crisp) failed to properly address the void left by Damon at the top of the order. Much like a gambler who takes a beating on the NFL on Sunday and tries to make it all up on Monday Night Football, Theo chased by overpaying for Lugo (.197, 5 HR this season) when they could have had Alex Gonzales (.250, 13 HR) for a fraction of the cost. Drew is starting to show some signs of coming around at least in terms of average but he only has 33 RBIs at the break which is piss poor production for a # 5 hitter.

I don't see how they can upgrade at leadoff or the #5 hole giving the investments made to Lugo & Drew. So that means this team will need to improve by making a move for pitching. With Schilling supposedly on the shelve to August they could really use a #3 starter giving his uncertainty. I would only have two untouchables in the farm system for the right deal and they are Ellbury (the next Grady Sizemore) and Buchholtz. If they have to give up Lester for a solid # 3 starter I make the move. This hedges your bet on Schilling's health and best case if he is healthy would also improve your bullpen by moving Taverez there.

I don't feel great about the Sox chances against either Anaheim or Detroit in the playoffs. Theo needs to make a move to improve this club for the championship run. It is just too bad his offseason moves have limited the options.

Friday Musings, July 6

Cleaning out the cobwebs from a week out of the office...

• * What about that Jacoby Ellsbury kid. Speed, power, defense. I can't wait until he gets his September call up and the Sox are 15 games up in the AL East. We are definitely going to enjoy watching this guy play.
  
• * To that end, you almost wonder if someone slipped some video highlights of Ellsbury into Coco Crisp's locker with a note that said "watch out" because Coco sure has hit A LOT better over the last few weeks. Nice grand slam last night in the first against Tampon Bay.
• * The Red Sox midseason grades provided by Chad Finn this week were entertaining and I have to say, I agree with most of them. However, I take exception with the "D" Chad gave Joel Pineiro. Taking out a three game stretch in May where Pineiro basically came in for mop-up duty, Joel would have a 3.99 ERA. For the most part, he has been a serviceable right-handed option out of the bullpen and I can honestly say, I don't mind seeing him come into a game, even when it's a tight one.
  
• * The fact that the idiots on WEEI are still giving Ainge shit about trading for Ray Allen blows me away. I will bet anyone a rack of ribs that a) the Celt's aren't done dealing yet and b) that even as currently constituted, they are good enough to contend for the 3-4 spot in the East next year. Any takers?
• * Tell me something. How is it possible that the Yankees are listed as "players" in half of the trade rumors on ESPN Insider? I'm quite sure they are interested in anyone and everyone but they have little of value to trade -- both in the farm system, and in the "bigs" -- and have said that they will not trade Philip Hughes. On top of that, they are 12 games behind the Sox with next to no chance of catching them and are 8 back in the wild card with four teams in front of them. I'm not ruling out a playoff appearance for them but seriously, this would be a great opportunity for the Yanks to acquiesce, become sellers and take the opportunity to rebuild their team around key players like Wang, Cano, and Cabrera. Fortunately for the Sox and the rest of the AL East, that's not the way George thinks so expect more payroll, fewer prospects and lots more overpaid veterans by the trade deadline.
  
• * Is it heresy to start salivating about football season with the Sox in first place and cruising toward the AL East tile? Training camp starts next week and the season opener is just seven weeks away!

Let's keep our fingers crossed that Papi's HR touch returns this weekend in Comerica Park!

Who Wins at Coney Island Tomorrow?

Tomorrow is the most anticipated Nathan's hot dog eating contest in the last decade as Kobayashi looks to win 6 in a row amid swirling reports of an injured jaw. He has a chance to match Bjorn Borg's 6-straight titles at the Big W and put himself among the all-time greatest individual athletes (if he is not already there). However, huge competition this year most notably in 23 year old Joey Chestnuts who recently dropped 59.5 dogs a few weeks back in a tune up event to break Kobayashi's world record. I also think you could see a dark horse shock the world as both Pat Bertoletti and Arturo Rios will probably jump to early leads as they eat very fast. I don't know if they can sustain the pace throughout as both Kobayashi and Chestnuts are great closers but it all adds up to just a must see American event on the 4th of July!

Friday Musings

A few thoughts to kick off your July 4th weekend (although I gotta say, the holiday falling on a Wednesday this year really screws things up)

• * People are going to be split 50/50 on last night's trade by the Celtics. In case you fell into a temporary sports coma, the Celtics gave up Jeff Green (no. 5 pick) plus Mssrs. Szczerbiak and West for Ray Allen and Glen "Big Baby" Davis (no. 35 pick). I know the C's still need defense in a big way but I think this move gives the Celts a great shot at the no. 4 seed in the East behind Cleveland, Detroit and Miami. The Celtics also got Gabe Pruitt -- a guard out of USC -- who was considered by many to be a first round pick.
• * Following up my first thought, I sent an e-mail last night to my friend, Rich Gotham, the new President of the Celtics:

Rich,

Assuming the trade goes through, this is a great move for the C's for three reasons:

1. You get a guy that was one of the top five scorers in the league
2. Al Jefferson is still a Celtic (and 2007 All Star to be)
3. You didn't pick Yi Jianlian (I know Danny liked him but he was too long term a project)

I smell a great 2007-08 season brewing!!!

Aaron

• * The Yankees totally got "Lugo-ed" last night. They are up 8-6 in the 8th inning after scoring 4 runs and then what happens? It starts to pour. The game gets postponed with play to resume at a later date. Just when they thought they were going to break their four game losing streak. Like many other members of Red Sox Nation, I was crushed...
  
• * Fellow classmate of Melrose High School '86, Jeff Gorton, got let go as the assistant GM of the Bruins yesterday. It's hard to believe but this guy had been with the Bruins for 15 years. Yes, the same Bruins team that have seemingly had a new coach and GM every one of those fifteen years. Good luck Jeff -- I'm sure you'll land a nice job with a better franchise elsewhere.
• * The Sox need to make three moves before the trade deadline:
  1) get rid of Mirabelli for a real backup catcher
  2) find a replacement for Timlin in the bullpen (they may have one already in Delcarmen)
  3) pick up another "Cora" i.e. a serviceable veteran utility infielder that can backup Cora at short and Pedroia at second. Since there is no moving Lugo, he becomes a VERY expensive pinch runner/late inning defensive substitution for the Sox
• * Hope that one win was worth the $5M the Yanks have paid Rocket so far. Maybe the Bronx Bombers will be willing to trade Rocket for Matt Clement mid-season straight up.
  

Let's pray for another hot streak starting tonight so that we can officially put the AL East to bed by the All Star break!

Red Sox should jump on Buehrle

It certainly seems like there are some serious negotiations going on between the two Sox as Allard Baird was in Chicago scouting Buehrle over the weekend. The Red Sox should get this deal done provided it #1-doesn't cost them either Buchholtz and Ellsbury and #2-they can sign him to an extension. Buehrle is only 28 years old, has averaged over 15 wins in his first 6 full seasons in the bigs and in those 6 has never pitched less than 200 innings. From what I'm hearing it sounds like the Sox could probably complete the deal by offering SS prospect Jed Lowrie, P Michael Bowden and P Kason Gabbard.

This would give the Red Sox their top of the line rotation for years to come in Beckett (27), Dice-K (26) and Buehrle (28). They would still have Lester and Buchholtz to compete for the back-end of the rotation. Not only would I see this being great for Boston in the long-term but I think the Sox need Buehrle's arm for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs this year. If I'm Theo I look to get this deal done ASAP.

Desperate?

You know your team is in trouble when in late May, your captain starts telling the media that "every game from here on in is a playoff." That may work when your the Cleveland Cavaliers and you're down 2-0 to perennial powerhouse, Detroit, in the NBA Eastern Finals but not when you're the New York Yankees. The difference is, the Cavs knew they needed to win four games to make it to the NBA finals. The Yanks have to win closer to 64.

The Bronx Bombers did make a valiant effort at treating every game like a playoff after a horrific losing stretch put them 14 1/2 games behind the white hot Red Sox. The Yanks were able to win 14 of 17 and pull within 7 of the Sox. However, there's a reason why an MLB season is compared to a "marathon" vs. a "sprint" because there are 162 games to play over the course of five and a half months. That's A LOT of baseball.

This weekend, we saw the "playoff mentality" of the Yankees translate into desperation as the Giants took two of three from the men in pinstripes. When a team feels compelled to trot out their 45 year old "rent-an-ace" pitcher in relief in late June, it has problems. This is particularly concerning when the team's payroll is $190 million -- the largest in baseball -- and the team has has pitchers like Villone, Vizcaino, Proctor, Myers, Farnsworth and Rivera who are supposed to get the job done.

I understand that the Yanks played 13 innings on Saturday and had to burn through their their bullpen more than they would have liked, but therein lies the problem. If the Yankees hadn't fallen 14 1/2 games behind the Sox (6 1/2 back in the Wild Card) early on, they wouldn't be forced to make desperation moves this early.

The beauty of baseball is that anything can happen. The Oakland A's seem to demonstrate that in the second half of every season. The Minnesota Twins proved it to the Tigers as they came roaring back last year (although Detroit got the last laugh by making it to the "Fall Classic.") Certainly Sox Nation knows it can happen as Bucky "Bleeping" Dent and the season of 1978 will be forever emblazoned in their minds. I don't see it this year though. The Sox pitching is too good and their bats have yet to all get hot at the same time.

On a related note, how good does if feel knowing that you've already got a stacked rotation (third best ERA in MLB) with Jon Lester in the wings only to find out that your team is the front runner (at least according to ESPN) on the Mark Buehrle chase. It may be a ploy to bid up the market so that the Yanks can't get him but hey, I'm okay with that too!

Friday Musings

Several random thoughts/questions as we head into what promises to be an exciting summer:

1) I can honestly say that I would not want to be in Danny Ainge's shoes right now. In listening to WEEI, watching Sports Center and reading various articles/blog posts, it would appear that people are split down the middle 50/50 on whether or not to trade Jefferson, the no. 5 pick and Theo Ratliff for KG or Amare Stoudemire. Apparently, the KG deal has been called off because KG doesn't want to come to Boston (big surprise) and rumors are that the same thing is happening on the Stoudemire front.

In a perfect world, I say they draft Jeff Green (go Hoyas!) or Corey Brewer and then field offers for a package of Green/Brewer, Jefferson and Ratliffe's expiring contract. If someone of the caliber of a Kobe or Stoudemire comes along, seriously consider it. If not, roll the dice this year and consider a trade for Pierce at the deadline if the C's struggle. I would not do the KG deal because a) he's too old and b) he's never had post season success (accept on trip to the Western Conference Finals).

For more on this front, check out Simmons latest if you haven't seen it yet. He wrote an amusing article about the draft and who should draft/trade for whom.

2) It appears that Miguel Tejada's consecutive games streak of 1,152, the longest currently in the majors, is about to come to an end due to a fractured wrist. Amazingly, the player with the second longest streak at present is Juan Pierre with 343. Teixeira had owned the second longest with 507 but that ended last weekend when he was placed on the DL.

3) Can't wait for the Jake Peavey/Josh Beckett match up this weekend. I'm predicting a Sox 3-1 victory with two of the runs coming in the 8th or 9th inning. The series in general should be fantastic with a showcase of great hitting against great pitching.

4) Did anyone notice that the Bruin's hired a new coach...? Didn't think so.

5) I have a bet with my friend Lil' Jim that the Rocket goes on the DL in the next five days after yesterday's poor outing. Haven't heard any news to substantiate this but I just have a feeling. If it doesn't happen in the next five days, I guarantee it happens very soon. Ditto for Mssrs. Mussina and Pettite. Just as the Yanks are finding their sea legs.

6) Speaking of the Yankees, do you think it's frustrating to win 14 of 17 and creep back to within 7 1/2 of the Sox only to be swept by the Rockies while the Sox blank the Giants and take two out of three from Atlanta? I've gotta say, unless the Yanks can trick San Diego into trading Jake Peavey for Mike Meyers and then making similar deals for the likes of Vlad Guerrero, Big Papi and Albert Pujols, you can stick a fork in them. With Detroit, Cleveland, Anaheim, and even Seattle hanging tough along with the inevitable run that the A's and Twinkies will put together in the second half, I don't see the Yanks even sniffing the Wild Card (never mind the AL East). Kind of breaks my heart if you want to know the truth.

Play ball!

Theo Epstein...A Very Mixed Bag

I sincerely hope that Theo took Dave Roberts out to dinner every night this past weekend because his steal and subsequent 8 game run by the Red Sox dramatically changed the way Red Sox fans view our current GM. A review of his record show a very mixed bag at best yet his popularity remains very high because of their 2004 Championship where he is giving much credit for saving the season by trading Nosemar. Credit he should absolutely get but if Dave Roberts doesn't beat that throw by the slimmest of margins then the Sox would have been nothing but an also ran and Theo very well would not have a job right now.

Good moves by Theo?
Sure, he signed Ortiz for almost nothing and projected him as a backup for Jeremy Giambi. He traded for Schilling for a bunch of guys who haven't amounted to anything. He let Pedro walk instead of signing him for 4 years. He let Damon walk instead of signing him for 4 years. He hired Terry Francona as manager and while I still don't really like the guy I will give him his due as I think Terry has been very good and this season is by far his best managing job in my opinion.

Bad moves by Theo?
Free agent busts in Mendoza, Clement, Renteria, Bradford and Byung-Hyun Kim. Traded Cal Meredith and Josh Baird for Doug Mirabelli. He traded Josh Hancock for Jeremy Giambi. He traded Marte, Shoppach and Mota for Crisp, Riske and Josh Bard. He traded Freddie Sanchez, Mike Gonzalez and cash for Suppan, Lyon and Martinez.

Moves the jury is still out on by Theo?
Two recent ones that look awful so far are Lugo and Drew. Dice-K looks pretty good but it is still too early on all three.

Theo receives a ton of credit for reviving what most people perceived as an awful farm system when he took over. Really? He were the Sox top 10 prospects at that time:
1
Kevin Youkilis
2
Freddy Sanchez
3
Jorge de la Rosa
4
Kelly Shoppach
5
Hanley Ramirez
6
Chad Spann
7
David Murphy
8
Manny Delcarmen
9
Jeremy West
10
Juan Cedeno

There was some pretty good talent down on the farm when he took over although early returns do indicate that Theo has done a very good job of drafting good young arms and position players. Certainly Dustin Pedroia has exceeded expectations and I think Jacoby Ellsbury will be making a major impact on this team for years.

All in all a very mixed bag and one that doesn't mesh with his current popularity.

Note to Tito

1) Might not want to bring Mike Timlin in when there are guys on base. Last I checked, Timlin is one of the worst in the league at allowing inherited runners to score.
2) Come to think of it, Tito might not EVER want to bring in Timlin on account of the fact that he sucks 'cause he's old.
3) Has anyone seen Curt Schilling? There is an overweight guy that keeps leaving 88 mph fastballs over the plate for HRs that looks like Curt but definitely isn't the Curt of old. In spite of the 1-hitter against the A's, Theo is looking brighter by the day for not signing Schill to a contract extension.

UPDATE [6/19] : I just saw on Boston.com that Schilling is headed back to Boston for an MRI so he may be hurt. If so, that explains why his last two outings have been less than stellar. I'm wondering if he overdid it in his bid for a "no no"? Either way, I rescind my criticism of Schill-dog in the above post if that is the case.

Keeping Me Honest

Too often prognosticators make big predictions and then are never held accountable. Before the season started, I took a swag predicting records for the Sox starting five. Here's an update with a projected run rate for those five.

Note: I've subbed Julian Tavarez in for Papelbon given the change in their respective roles:

- C. Schilling: (prediction) 16-9 -------> (current) 6-3 ------> (projected*): 14-7
- J. Beckett: (prediction) 17-7 ---------> (current) 9-1 ------> (projected*): 21-2
- D. Matsuzaka: (prediction) 14-12 ----> (current) 8-5 ------> (projected*): 18-11-
- J. Tavarez: (prediction) 14-10 -------> (current): 4-4 ------> (projected*): 9-9
- T. Wakefield: (prediction) 12-14 -----> (current): 6-7 ------> (projected*): 14-16
- J. Lester: (prediction) 8-4 -----------> (current): 0-0 ------> (projected**): 8-4
- The rest: (prediction) 15-10 ---------> (current): 10-4 ------> (projected*: 20-9

Note: the Sox currently are currently 5th in the MLB for team ERA.

So far so good on my other prediction about the Sox being top five in the AL in runs scored, slugging %, OBP and OPS:

- Runs scored = 339 (5th)
- Slugging % = .432 (4th)
- OBP = .355 (2nd)
- OPS = .787 (4th)

One other thing. You know you live in Boston when you have an 8 1/2 game lead over the number two team and possess the best record in baseball and fans still find themselves looking over their shoulders...

*According to ESPN.com (straight line projections)
**My best guess

Julian Rising

Am I the only member of Red Sox nation that now feels that Julian Tavarez gives the Sox their best shot at winning on a day in/day out basis? Now obviously Beckett is the Sox current ace at 9-1 (the 6.8 runs/game has not hurt his cause.) However, he's had a couple of shaky starts over the last month. Schilling, Dice-K and Wakefield have all had their recent gems but all have also had their shit pies too.

Julian Tavarez has not only pitched an average of six innings per game over his last seven games but he's also matched up against the opposing team's ace in several of his starts -- the A's Haren, the Yank's Mussina, the Twin's Santana, the Jay's Halladay - twice, the Ranger's Millwood and the Giant's Zito. That's a tough stretch of pitchers. Tavarez has also only given up more than four runs twice (five against the O's and 6 against the Jays).

What's been so clutch about Tavarez this year is the fact that he actually gives the Sox a shot at winning. Remember last year when the likes of Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, et. al were crapping the bed every fifth day? Now I actually look forward to the days when Tavarez is pitching.

As much as I'd like to see Lester called up sooner rather than later, I'm not convinced he's going to give us any more than Tavarez has this season. In fact, I'd be fine with the Sox holding off on bringing Lester up until someone gets hurt or they need him for a spot start. The guy is what, 22? Give him a little time.

Random note I: God love the Mets for blanking Roger and the Yanks tonight. Not that I was getting nervous but seeing the Sox lead over the Yanks shrink by seven games in ten days was giving me a negative boner. Dare I say that it looks like JD Drew might be breaking out of his slump? Other than last night where he actually crushed the ball a few times, he's started to put together some decent at bats. That could go a long way toward igniting this line up.

Random note II: how is it possible that Maglio Ordonez can look in the mirror and not say, "oh my God, I look like an absolute dufus?" If he hasn't, he should.

Oh yeah, and what about that Pedroia kid. 5 for 5. Are you kidding me? Dustin, shame on us for ever doubting you...

Missing: Red Sox Offense

Last seen firing on all cylinders 2003/2004.
Formerly answered to, Cowboy Up, and, We're just Idiots.

So, where o' where has the once mighty Red Sox offense gone? Obviously this wasn't the main issue last night, but it was a big one. Some timely hitting might have motivated our pitching staff just enough to keep the game within reach. However, they never came through with the clutch hit, which seems to be way too big of a theme this year. Eeking out 1-0 or 2-1 wins is scary. Even worse, losing games 2-0, or 3-2 (all of which happened in the last two weeks).

I remember in '03/'04 you'd look up and down the lineup and 1-9 and just about anyone could come up big, and we were a damn scary team to face.

This year our offense has some enormous holes, and we could even get blanked on any given night. The main culprits go by the names of Drew, Crisp, and Lugo. Out of those three, I don't know what it is, but I think Lugo has the best chance of rebounding. JD Drew, I fear is going to be the $70m mistake people thought he might be…and Coco. I just can't seem to get a read on him. I keep thinking he's going to turn it around, but game after game he doesn't come up with the key hit…and that stance looks so freakin' awkward it's hard to imagine hitting consistently like that.

On top of that, you've got Mirabelli every 5th day. Our best bat off the bench is Cora, and he isn't exactly the Mr Clutch he was in April/May (though I'm still a huge fan). Hinske and Pena are downright miserable, and you can only hope for the occasional 500 foot home run from Pena. Other than that you just wait for him to strike out on the next breaking ball.

Papi is hitting, but not hitting the ball out of the park at his usual rate. Manny is bringing the average back, but same thing. Varitek is actually coming through occasionally, but then he'll look like the Varitek from the end of last year with horrible swings where he looks like he's actually falling away from the plate.

So basically you've got Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell carrying the offense at this point. My bet is that they can't carry it all year. Oh, and Pedroia has turned into a pleasant surprise after his scary start.

This is all leading up to the point, that I think something has to be done. You need to make a move soon to bolster this offense. One big bat might even be enough to spark the rest of the lineup.

As I said before. Drew is immovable due to his contract. Likely Lugo too (and you just have to hope that those two are eventually going to live up to their contracts). I think you really need to consider a Crisp/Pena combo to a team that's willing to take on relatively small salaries for some potential upside. The Rooster mentioned trying to nab Lofton or Hatteberg. Both sound intriguing.

Whatever it is, I think it's safe to say that you're not going to win another championship if the offense doesn't pick it up. While good options are down on the farm for the outfield, I think we're going to need at least one big trade to make this team complete.

One last thought to consider: Julian Tavarez, batting 1.000.

Cheers,
-JS

What Fuels the Rocket?

I am absolutely convinced that Bonds, Sosa, McGuire as well as a huge number of major league ballplayers used and continue to use steroids and HGH. In my opinion pitchers are using every bit as much as hitters. I thought ever since Clemens left Boston he was on something and Kevin Hench wrote a stellar piece for Fox Sports on the possibility:
Kevin Hench

I went to the University of Rhode Island from '89 to '94 and 30% of my fraternity brothers were on steroids just in order to lift more and look bigger walking around campus. My buddies on the football team told me greater than 50% of the team was on something and Rhody football was only 1AA. These guys had almost nothing to gain except maybe a blow job from a co-ed who likes muscles and considering the frequency that Rhody girls went down on my non-steroid self I'm not sure it was at all needed.

Fast forward more than a decade and scientist have developed synthetic steroids and places like BALCO have learned how to maximize the results and minimize the negative effects of performance enhancing drugs. Hell, there is no known test for HGH so a player can take it without any worries. There are millions of dollars at stake for these guys and even more important than money for some is the opportunity to break records and cement their place in baseball history.

If the non-using ballplayers were to stand up and complain about those doing drugs I would be in their corner. However, nobody has ever spoken up so until I hear they have an issue with it I'm not really going to complain. Heck, as a fan I appreciate these athletes maximizing their skills via drugs because it makes for a higher level of competition. However, lets not try to pretend that use isn't rampant today even with baseball's new steroid policy. The media shouldn't just call out Barry Bonds and not ask the same type of critical questions about Roger Clemens. Drug use doesn't begin and end with Barry and Roger by a long shot but they are the two biggest names in the sport and as such will receive the most media coverage. It seems very odd that one only gets darts thrown at him while the other only gets roses.

No "No No"

What a game. What a performance. Man did the Sox need yesterday's win. Driving through Boston after Wednesday night's fourth straight heart-breaker, I could swear I saw a few Red Sox fans teetering on the top of the Pru.

Speaking of heart breaking, I can't believe that Curt got within one out of the "no no" yesterday. I watched the last three innings of the game from the hospital (my third child, Audrey Catherine" was born last night). I joked with my wife as she lay her hospital bed dealing with the pain of contractions every fifteen minutes, "Honey, if Curt gets a no hitter today, we're going to have to go with 'Schilling' or 'Curtwina' for our daughter's middle name." Surprisingly, my wife was not amused by this notion.

Fortunately for my wife -- and daughter -- Shannon Stewart ended Schilling's bid for history with two outs in the ninth. In some ways, this was a blessing in disguise. Can you imagine the guilt Lugo would have felt knowing that he was the reason that Curt missed pitching the 18th perfect game in the history of Major League Baseball? Why has nobody mentioned this by the way? I know it's a moot point but when Lugo made his error in the seventh, all I could think was, "Lugo just blew Schilling's perfect game."

Being a glass half full kind of guy, I'll look at the fact that Schilling came up huge yesterday in spite of missing out on the "no no." He did what a stopper is supposed to do -- he won. That in the face of another anemic offensive performance. Can you imagine the pressure of pitching with a one run lead in a game knowing that a) you had to win and b) you really needed to go at least seven if not eight innings in order to spare your overworked bullpen?

Let's hope things turn around for the Sox bats this weekend. I guess at this point, they can't get much worse. One strategy they might employ is when they have a runner on first is to ALWAYS lay down a sacrifice bunt. Yes, I'm recommending this even if Ortiz or Manny is at the plate. How many double plays have they hit into in the last three games. Seven?

On that note, let's play ball!

Tough series ahead

Well, fortunately for the Sox, they will miss Randy Johnson in this series and get the #4 and #5 part of Arizona's pitching line-up, before having to face stud-boy Brandon Webb on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Sox, the #4 and #5 are pretty darn good this season. 4-6, but with a 3.05 era, and 4-1, 3.86 era, respectively. They also have some pretty strong middle guys like Pena and Lyon, and a closer with 21 of 24 saves converted in Velarde. Hope the Sox left their wiffle-ball bats in Oakland and brought the real wood home with them. While the D-Backs' hitting is less than stellar, they are ranked 4th in the majors in pitching. Maybe some more 3-2, 1-0 games, hopefully with the good guys on top.

Go Sox.

Rooster Ramblings

-- Here’s a sentence I never thought I’d write: I’ll be relieved if the Sox have a double digit lead over the Yankees at the All-Star break.

-- Manny’s agent should send J.D. Drew a thank you card. He has single-handedly made Manny seems like Lou Gehrig after years of complaints about Ramirez' mysterious line-up no-shows. Fact is, Manny has played more games than Derek Jeter since 2003. And the Japanese Iron Horse, Hideki Matsui? 68 fewer games played than Manny since 2003. The only shame here is that we have to suffer through J.D. Drew to fully appreciate what we’ve had in left field. Hopefully, Manny’s here for many more 100 RBI seasons.

-- I’ll be stunned if the Celtics don’t draft the Chinese 7-footer, Yi Jianlian, if he’s there at No. 5. Our comrade-in-blog Junior Gong makes a great counterpoint that Ainge needs to get the most NBA-ready player to save his job. Still, I can’t see Wyc Grousbeck turning his back on the potential marketing income from China. Call it the Dice K ripple effect. Jianlian’s sure to move a lot of green jerseys overseas – he’s already got his own Nike commercial in rotation in China. We can only hope he’s good enough to crack the C’s rotation here.

-- Time to kill a myth left over from the NFL draft. One of the more oft-quoted lines – from Mel Kiper to Trey Wingo – was “you don’t pass up a potential franchise quarterback with the first pick if your team needs one.” The Raiders were hailed for following this rule and the Dolphins were KILLED for ignoring it and leaving Brady Quinn on the board. After hearing that concept spouted a million times in a week, you actually start to think it makes perfect sense. One small problem -- it doesn’t make sense at all. If any one man has shown the folly in this concept, it’s A.J. Smith of the San Diego Chargers. Twice in the last six drafts, Smith has been in the No. 1 spot where his team could’ve had Mike Vick and Eli Manning, both hailed as franchise saviors at the time. In both cases, the Chargers went away from the franchise QB (Manning actually forced them, too) and spun those two picks into LaDanian Tomlinson, Shawn Merriman, Philip Rivers, Nate Kaeding, Roman Oben, Tim Dwight, Reche Caldwell and Tay Cody. Not a bad haul, eh? By going away from the lure of the savior college QB, the Chargers actually saved their franchise. On the flip side, the Falcons are left with an all-star dogfighter and the Giants have a poor-man’s David Carr. Ouch. So what does this mean to the Raiders and Dolphins? If the Chargers are any guide, both franchises will regret not trading out of their spots to address more needs.

-- I’m a huge hoops fan, and like many of you, I miss the Celtic glory days. However, as much as it sucks to see Tim Duncan still raising trophies with the Spurs rather than here in Boston, not once have I ever watched Duncan play and actually felt cheated I haven’t had the chance to watch him play every night. I know, I know – he’s one the all-time greats, but has anyone ever considered a Tim Duncan game required TV viewing?

-- Just curious: are we SURE that Flip Saunders knows defensive double-teams are allowed in the NBA?