Red Sox Clinch: Why Are We Not More Excited?

Shame on me for not getting this up sooner. It truly demonstrates that we Boston sports fans are getting too lackadaisical in our passion for our sport's teams when our team makes the playoffs and we can't even take the time to do a quick celebratory blog post about it. I guess that's what two World Series wins, three Super Bowl wins (four appearances) and an NBA Championship in the span of seven years will do to you.

Rewinding to that last statement, I'm thinking that maybe our seeming complacency has less to do with being lackadaisical and more about high expectations for our local teams. Thinking back to the early eighties, I remember many Boston Celtic sports fans waiting until late February/early March to really check into the season. It wasn't because they didn't love the Celtics but rather they expected that they would be in the playoffs. In fact, they assumed that anything short of making it to the finals was a disappointment. That may come off as arrogant or detached but it's a reality. I believe it's one of the main reasons we as Red Sox fans have hated Yankee fans and Cowboy fans so much in the past. By the way, we're obviously starting to inspire some of this same hate in other fans (thanks to friend, Adam Cohen, for passing this along).

With all that said, I am very excited that the Sox are in the playoffs. It's been a little bit of an odd season as some of the posts on this blog have noted. The season opening in Japan and then pausing for a few west coast exhibition games was a weird start. Then we seem to have hit a disproportionate number of west coast games early on (I'm an early-to-bedder most nights so I can't stay up until 1:00 AM watching those games). Plus, the Sox seemed to be in cruise control most of the season in spite of the Rays besting them in August and September. Still, this is the fifth time in six years the boys from Beantown have been to the post season and I'm thrilled.

The big question now is how will we fare? Personally, I'm a little nervous but feeling better every day. Getting JD Drew back into the lineup last night was huge. More important is nursing Lowell back to a quasi-healthy state. I think we'll end up missing Manny's "clutchedness" in some of the big at bats but it seems like Youk and Pedroia are starting to fill some of that need. Also, Ellsbury is coming on at the right time. Pitching is mostly good and with the addition of Masterson to the core bullpen team, it seems like we're finding some stability beyond just Papelbon in the late innings.

There's no doubt that the Angels will be tougher this year than in years past. The Sox dropping eight out of nine to them this year is testiment to that fact. The Rays are also a force to be reckoned with although I'll be interested to see how they do in their first year ever in the playoffs. As we've seen in the past, having "been there" before matters more than ever in October although we've seen another team from Florida win twice over the last 12 years in spite of being a "rookie" team.

So ladies and gentlemen, stock up your refrigerators and your snack cabinets and grab your remotes. Hopefully we're in for a long ride over the next several weeks. Any predictions for a Manny vs. Ortiz world series?

Photo credit: Moon Battery

Steady at the Helm: The Terry Francona Story

"Story" might be a stretch since this is going to be a short blog post but the point of my title is that Terry Francona's success at the helm of the Red Sox is worthy of much more ink than he's received to date. I'm not implying that people are dissing him but merely that he is one of the most underrated managers in baseball (and possibly all sports for that matter).

After two World Series wins and three trips to the post season (soon to be four) in his five years as manager of the Red Sox, it's hard to argue with the fact that Terry Francona is a good manager. What makes him special, however, is his ability to stay calm under pressure. By pressure, I don't just mean in the game but during the season. I'll argue that it's this ability that allowed the Sox to win the WS last year and is what will get them deep into the playoffs this year.

Unlike former Yankee manager (who as many of you know now has the pleasure of coaching "Red Sox West" aka the LA Dodgers), Francona doesn't burn out his bullpen. He doesn't panic and keep guys off the DL when they need time to heal. Francona isn't affraid to run with a rookie even when he's struggling mightily (remember how poorly MVPedroia started off last season?) or to stick with a veteran that needs to work himself out of a deep slump (hello msr. Varitek). That's not as much of a knock on Torre as it is a compliment to Francona.

One of the things that ultimately did Torre in in New York was the pressure from Steinbrenner to win at all costs. It forced him to constantly ride his best 2-3 relievers in the pen ( I remember a dozen times over the last few years where Torre brought Rivera in for 4+ out saves, mainly because the Yankees early season losses constantly put the team in must win situations starting as early as August). This ultimately lead to the Yanks exiting the playoffs early (see 20002, and then 2005-2007) because by the time they got into the playoffs, there bullpen was so worn out they didn't have the horses to win in tight games.

Francona on the other hand has taken extremet caution with players like Beckett, Papelbon, Schilling, Wakefield, Dice-K, Lowell, Youkilis, Ortiz and others during the regular season, sometimes seeming to thumb his nose at opportunities to win the division and instead settling for the Wild Card. Even this year, up until a few games ago, it appeared that the Sox were headed for the Wild Card but with Tampa Bay hitting the wall and Boston getting back some of their studs (Beckett, Lowell, Youkilis and soon, Drew), a win tonight against Texas would put the Sox just 1 1/2 games back in the division with six left against the Rays.

Now I must also give credit where credit is due to Theo Epstein who has not only completely restocked the Sox farm system (4th best in the majors) but made the tough decisions like trading Nomar in 2004, not emptying the bank for Johan Santana and ultimately pulling the trigger on the Manny for Bay trade at the trading deadline this year (a deal that apparently has worked out well for both teams with the Sox a near lock for the playoffs and the Dodgers with a 1/2 game lead in the West). It doesn't hurt to have owners with deep pockets but the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers have equally deep pockets and look how they've faired up until this year.

What do you think? Is Terry the man? Or is he just lucky?

Three Reasons Why the Sox Needed this Win

The Sox win over Tampa Bay tonight was a big one. A REALLY big one. Below are three reasons we needed this win more than any other win this season:

1. They clinched a playoff spot. Yes, nobody in Red Sox Nation will be happy with anything short of the AL East title but at a minimum, we're in the playoffs. The magic number to clinch the east is now 6.
   
2. The Sox stay 2 1/2 ahead of the Yanks who pulled one out of their ass in a slugfest against the pesky Blue Jays. I was praying for another 14 inning heartbreaker for the Yanks but what can you do. At least it happened last night.
3. The Sox still have the best record in baseball. Maintaining this status will make the Sox job of getting back to the fall classic immeasurably easier.

Two other reasons why this game was much needed:

1. This was a come from behind win. These types of wins have been few and far between this season. It's really too bad that Javier Lopez had to blow this game for Dice K who pitched a great game tonight (two good starts in a row now.)
2. Gagne and Papelbon looked "Gagne" and "Papelbon-esque". Even better, Jacoby Ellsbury continues his otherworldly hitting. Varitek finally has a big game (including a game tying HR in the 9th) and even JD Drew chipped in with his bat.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring but history says that Wake pitches well in TB. His last outing was okay so maybe tomorrow he can turn things around. At least for tonight, we can feel a little bit good about our home time boys.

Pitching and Defense

This has been cross-posted on sister site - http://dicenation.com

Pitching and defense wins games. At least that's what they say when it comes playoff time in Major League Baseball. There are two reasons why I agree with that theory:

1. Anyone that has ever tried to hit a ball in 50 degree weather (the average nighttime temperature in late September/early October) can tell you that it's not a pleasant feeling. It's essential that you hit the ball with the meat of the bat. Anything below that and your hands sting for hours afterward.
2. By the time you've played a 162 game season, players are tired. Most batters have 400-500 plate appearances which translates into somewhere between 1,500-2,000 "rip your arms out of your sockets" swings for many big leaguers. Granted, pitchers grind through the same 162 games but in most cases, starting pitchers have only pitched 35-40 times at an average of 6-7 innings/game.
   

Why I'm harping on this age old concept of "pitching and defense?" is because it's exactly the thing that will win the Red Sox their 2nd World Series in three years. It's also the reason I am not worried about the Yankees unbelievable post-All Star break push where the Bronx Bombers have won 24 of their last 33 (25 if you count the delayed game they won against the O's).

I'd be lying if I told you that I wasn't impressed by what the Yanks have done over the last month. I'd also be lying if I didn't tell you that I've kept a closer eye on the out-of-town scoreboard every night. But at the end of the day, the Sox are just too good to blow this lead. Put it this way. The Sox have been playing just slightly better than .500 ball since June and yet they still maintain the best record in baseball and are five games better than the second place Yanks.

Two things that support the "pitching and defense" theory. For one, the Yankees offense has averaged just a hair over 7 runs/game during their last 33 games. However, they've also given up an average of 4.9 runs/game in that same stretch including losses to bottom dwellers Baltimore ( 0-12), Toronto (4-15), Chicago (9-13) and Tampa Bay (4-14.)

If you look at the ERAs of the projected playoff teams in the AL -- Sox (3.77), Angels (4.09), Detroit (4.65) and potentially Seattle (4.61) -- the Yanks, on paper at least, don't win many games against these teams. Given the Yankees upcoming schedule (3 with LA, 8 with Detroit, 3 with Boston and 3 with the Sox), we can see if this theory holds true.

The second item that supports the theory of "pitching and defense" leading to victory for the Sox is the law of averages. If the Red Sox own the 2nd best ERA in MLB (1st in the AL) while the Yankees are 14th overall (7th in the AL), the 6th best fielding percentage in MLB (3rd in the AL) and 4th best offense in the MLB (3rd in the AL -- NY is first overall in MLB), this says that the Red Sox have to hang on to their lead over the next 43 games.

There is still a lot of baseball to be played before the fat lady sings but you have to like the Sox chances. A lot of apologists (myself included) have tried to argue that the upcoming schedule for the Sox and Yanks will level the playing field a bit. At the end of the day though, it's about execution. The Sox have it where it counts -- the Yanks don't.

See you in October!

Desperate?

You know your team is in trouble when in late May, your captain starts telling the media that "every game from here on in is a playoff." That may work when your the Cleveland Cavaliers and you're down 2-0 to perennial powerhouse, Detroit, in the NBA Eastern Finals but not when you're the New York Yankees. The difference is, the Cavs knew they needed to win four games to make it to the NBA finals. The Yanks have to win closer to 64.

The Bronx Bombers did make a valiant effort at treating every game like a playoff after a horrific losing stretch put them 14 1/2 games behind the white hot Red Sox. The Yanks were able to win 14 of 17 and pull within 7 of the Sox. However, there's a reason why an MLB season is compared to a "marathon" vs. a "sprint" because there are 162 games to play over the course of five and a half months. That's A LOT of baseball.

This weekend, we saw the "playoff mentality" of the Yankees translate into desperation as the Giants took two of three from the men in pinstripes. When a team feels compelled to trot out their 45 year old "rent-an-ace" pitcher in relief in late June, it has problems. This is particularly concerning when the team's payroll is $190 million -- the largest in baseball -- and the team has has pitchers like Villone, Vizcaino, Proctor, Myers, Farnsworth and Rivera who are supposed to get the job done.

I understand that the Yanks played 13 innings on Saturday and had to burn through their their bullpen more than they would have liked, but therein lies the problem. If the Yankees hadn't fallen 14 1/2 games behind the Sox (6 1/2 back in the Wild Card) early on, they wouldn't be forced to make desperation moves this early.

The beauty of baseball is that anything can happen. The Oakland A's seem to demonstrate that in the second half of every season. The Minnesota Twins proved it to the Tigers as they came roaring back last year (although Detroit got the last laugh by making it to the "Fall Classic.") Certainly Sox Nation knows it can happen as Bucky "Bleeping" Dent and the season of 1978 will be forever emblazoned in their minds. I don't see it this year though. The Sox pitching is too good and their bats have yet to all get hot at the same time.

On a related note, how good does if feel knowing that you've already got a stacked rotation (third best ERA in MLB) with Jon Lester in the wings only to find out that your team is the front runner (at least according to ESPN) on the Mark Buehrle chase. It may be a ploy to bid up the market so that the Yanks can't get him but hey, I'm okay with that too!