4th and 2

The facts are clear, the Patriots had a better chance of winning the game by going for it on 4th and 2 than if they punted.

In fact it is a 78% winning probability going for it on 4th and 2 versus a 70% WP when punting.

Here is the math.

Still hurts though, huh?

Unanswered Questions Starting to be Answered?

Commissioner Gammons has a great column on the Sox, hitting a bunch of topics from Varitek, to Bay to the latest in a long line of shortstop prospects:

"Perhaps the most encouraging news thus far this winter has been the play of shortstop Jose Iglesias, a 19-year-old Cuban defector whom the Red Sox signed in July, in his first American experience in the Arizona Fall League. They thought he'd defend, and one National League scout says "He may have the quickest hands I've ever seen. Get a closet for his Gold Gloves."

It is fairly obvious to me, and others smarter than myself, that the Sox are going to sit on the sidelines this year. 2010 is going live or die with the team they pretty much currently have. But 2011 and beyond seem to be really huge years in terms of the depth coming up from the farm and the free agents available. Let me be the first to say it...the '10s will be the Red Sox decade.

Hot Stove topic #2: Patriots.

(Note: It's topic #1 for Kyle Flaherty.)

The Patriots, I'm sure you've noticed, are 5-2, and sit atop the AFC East. Their remaining schedule looks like this:

• Miami
• at Indianapolis
• NY Jets
• at New Orleans
• at Miami
• Carolina
• at Buffalo
• Jacksonville
• at Houston
  

I see a lot of winnable games in there, but you tell me: which of these games do they win, and which do they lose? Where do they slot into the playoffs? And how far will they go this year?

The Hot Stove League is now in session.

Some starter topics:

• What's your ideal starting rotation for the Sox next year?
• What kinds of free-agent acquisitions should the Sox make in the off-season? Which particular players do you have in mind?
• Any Sox farmhands you're looking forward to seeing with the big club next year?
• How seriously should we scheme to put together a BigP Spring Training trip?
  

Thoughts?

~

(Image source.)

I have the ball

OK, not THE ball (we hear the dog ate it), but at least an official replica.

An early birthday gift arrived in the mail over the weekend. And it what can only be termed a so-crazy-that-it-MUST-be-true coincidence, I had been sent a 2007 World Series baseball, signed by ... Jonathan Papelbon himself. No way I could make this up.

Mom and I had a good laugh on the phone on Sunday, when I told her that I "penned" the occasional column on a blog named after the same Sox closer who had autographed my birthday present. She had had no idea.

One other funny twist that ties in here ... I was a 7-year-old in the hospital recuperating from minor surgery in the spring of 1984 when I was given a "best wishes" signed baseball from former Red Sox, Dwight Evans.

I always liked Evans' timely hitting and cannon arm in right field. Plus--and this was probably a bigger deal when I was kid--he and I share the same birthday: November 3.

So, happy birthday, Dewey! And thanks for the ball, Pap! No dogs in my house, so it's safe with me.

Three thoughts on three days' rest.

1. For most of baseball history, three days of rest was the norm for starting pitchers, not some sign of super-duper-awesome-super-toughness.

2. If I had a horse like C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee in my rotation, you're damn right I would plan on using them in Games 1, 4, and 7 of an LCS or World Series. At a maximum, that schedule would go on for two rounds of the playoffs, i.e. three weeks, after which the pitcher is guaranteed a winter of rest.

3. Three days' rest isn't for everybody, and I certainly wouldn't force it on, say, today's Pedro Martinez. But would it really be that hard to go with your horse for Games 1, 4, and 7, then apportion the other starts for Games 2, 3, 5, and 6?

Your thoughts?

10 Things I Think I Think

Anyone here read Peter King of Sports Illustrated? I'm assuming most of you have. He writes a weekly column called Monday Morning Quarterback -- a must read if you follow football at all. My main reason for mentioning him is that within his MMQB column, he has a section called "Ten Things I Think I Think." Given my lack of contribution to Big Papelbon (other than in the comments section), I felt like I needed a more substantive post with some current thoughts on the Boston sports scene. Here goes:

1. Missed the Celtics season opener the other night. Saw the highlights on ESPN though and I'll tell you what... the 2009 Celts are going to be a tough team this season provided they stay healthy. What a great combo of veterans (Pierce, Garnett, Allen, 'Sheed, House and Daniels) and youth (Davis, Perkins, Allen and Williams).
2. Following up on point number one, LeBron IS a human highlight film. However, I'm going to reiterate that if he doesn't learn to be more reliant on his teammates (Shaq might help that), championships are going to continue to be elusive.
3. Cliff Lee. Game 1 of the World Series. WOW. Enough said.
4. Sounds like the Red Sox might make a run at Ben Sheets. Yeah, I know that the last few science experiments with Mssrs. Penny and Smoltz didn't work out so well. But this one's got nothing but upside considering the fact that they've already got three legit studs in Beckett, Lester and DiceK and a stud in the making with Clay Buchholz. Sounds like the Sox interest in Adrian Gonzalez is also heating back up. The idea is that Gonzalez (40 HRs in 2009) would play first and Youk would bounce back to third.
5. What about them Patriots? True, they last two teams they've played are a combined 0-12 but good teams beat bad teams soundly. And the Pats have done just that winning 59-0 and 35-7 respectively -- both times in bad weather. Looks like Brady's fate will rise and fall based on the presence of his security blanket, Wes Welker. Nice to see them at 5-2 going into the break. I pity the next nine teams that have to play them.
6. University of Texas has two teams ranked number three in the country right now. Everyone in Austin knows that the men's football team is one of them. How many Longhorn fans/Austinites know that the men's basketball team (preseason coaches' poll) is the other?
7. Good to see the A-Rod we all know and love (kills it in the regular season/chokes in the post season) resurface for the World Series. He's batting a stellar 0-8 with 6 strikeouts. Even if the Yankees win, this makes me oddly happy.
8. If Garnett, Allen, 'Sheed and Pierce can all stay healthy this season (yes, that's a huge IF), the Celtics could win 70 games. Just sayin'.
9. Regarding the Bruins (5-5-1), I hope they do well this season. Beyond that, I got nothing for ya. Not the biggest NHL fan.
10. Best wishes to Brad Mills, former Red Sox bench coach, who was named manager of the Houston Astros. Hopefully he'll bring a little of that Boston/Philly mojo to the 'Stros. It would be nice to see them get back into the hunt.

THAT's why they say . . .

. . . "Good pitching beats good hitting."

Cliff Lee: complete game, zero earned runs, 10 K's in the house of the best offensive lineup baseball has seen in years. Shades of Beckett in the 2003 World Series or the 2007 ALCS -- or, dare we say it?, Hershiser in the 1988 Series.

Even better: he did it with complete insouciance. Did you see that smile he was wearing?

One down, three to go.

Thoughts on Game One? Predictions for Game Two?

A thought on the verge of the World Series.

I'll be happy for the Yankees to win their 27th World Championship . . . right after every other team wins at least one since the Yankees collected their 26th.

World Series predictions?

Same approach as last time -- first you say what you WANT to see happen, then you say what you think WILL happen.

Go.

Should Gus Johnson call every important game in every sport?

I'm thinking yes, and -- given his comments on the previous post and our discussion last night on Twitter -- it seems that Tyson Goodridge agrees with me.

At this point, I'm looking for two things:

1. Any persuasive argument that Joe Buck, Jim Nantz, Al Michaels, et al. should be allowed to keep blocking our enjoyment of Gus's calls for big games.

2. Examples of how Gus Johnson would have called great plays that were underserved by other sportscasters. Start with Tyree's Helmet Catch and go from there. May I suggest your extend your consideration to Y. E. Yang's victory over Woods at the PGA this year?

Playoff Predictions?

Time to exercise your baseball prognostication powers . . .

In the comments, please list TWO things:

1. What you WANT to see happen in the rest of the playoffs.
2. What you PREDICT will happen in the rest of the playoffs.

Go!

We forge ahead.

Pioneer spirit, my friends.

It's easy to say this now with the benefit of hindsight, but I was leery of the playoff chances for the Sox a while before the playoffs even started. When Kyle posted about Paps a month ago, I couldn't get on board. Sure, I wanted him to be great, but I'd seen a couple of outings too many where the "bend, don't break" approach went too far. Is he a great pitcher, even after yesterday? Of course. Was he the freaky, control-the-weather, out-making machine we've seen in the past? No -- and not just yesterday.

We're spoiled. Two World Series wins this decade (plus three for the Pats and one for the Celtics), and a franchise built to go to the playoffs every single year. Changes will come during the off-season, for sure, but the engine is still in place.

So, tell me what you think about these Hot Stove questions . . .

• What happens to Varitek?
• What happens to Lowell?
• What's the everyday starting lineup next year?
• What's the ideal 2010 rotation?
• What are you most excited about for 2010?

Eager to have your thoughts.

Who's it gonna be: Tigers or Twins?

Which team are you cheering for in today's AL Central one-game tiebreaker (TBS, 5:07pm EDT start)?

• Detroit Tigers (visitors)
• Minnesota Twins (home)

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Should Varitek Sit During Playoffs?

A thought sparked by Tim's Tweet.

Assuming that Mike Lowell is healthy you have to sit Varitek and have Martinez behind the dish...right?

Now I know Lowell isn't hitting all that well, but having Varitek at the bottom of the order is nearly like a NL team hitting the pitcher.

Playoff Starting Rotation?

The playoffs are all but a certainty at this point and due to our lackluster play in KC it will be as the Wild Card. Let's start to look ahead at the starting rotation against the Angels and realizing that the Yankees (best record) get to choose this year the playoff schedule they will take. This means they will go with schedule A giving them a day off between Games 1/2, thus needing only three starters. Forcing the Angels and Sox to go with four starters.

Lester
Beckett
Buckholz
Wakefield

Agreed?

Sporting bookmarks

Which sports blogs/websites do you have bookmarked on your mobile phone (or laptop or desktop)? Here's my iPhone 3G list, in no particular order:

(note: For usability reasons, I'm embedding the web-based links to these pages and sites.)

1) ESPN.com
The Worldwide Leader in Sports features an iPhone-friendly version of its site. The pages load quickly and navigation is a breeze. I've alternated this bookmark between the main ESPN site and the MLB landing page.

2) Boston Sports Media Watch
Bruce Allen's blog is one of the first that I ever read. And since 2002, his site has been a daily staple of my online reading (I even contributed to the site for a while back in 2005).

Bruce rounds up daily links to Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, and Bruins stories, but it's his coverage of the Boston sports media that really stands out. Bruce has called out Ron Borges and others for their plagiarism and hypocritical writing, and he blasts WEEI for some its moronic talk and antics, too. But it's certainly not all critical commentary from Bruce. He'll praise reporters and media members when they deserve it.

As an added bonus, BSMW has also added a mobile-friendly version of its site in the last week or so.

3) Cricket.org
My debut column for Big Papelbon saluted South African cricketing captain Graeme Smith, so it's no secret that I'm a cricket fan. Cricket.org offers the latest news and results from the cricketing world, and I check in to the site almost every day.

My only suggestion for Cricket.org? A mobile version of the site is sorely needed.

4) Boston.com Sports
Whether on the web or on my phone, this has been my No. 1 online destination for several years running. A recent mobile version has actually made finding articles more difficult, but I still head here without fail for the headlines.

5) Chad Finn's Touching All the Bases
Finn is my favorite Boston.com/Boston Globe reporter/columnist/blogger--and by a country mile. His generally optimistic outlook and killer sarcasm and wit are the perfect combination for this reader. Not that I'm one to throw stones, but my only complaint is that Finn doesn't blog often enough. Guess those other pesky commitments to the Globe keep him busy!

One other note: If you're into how the media covers our favorite sports teams--as I am--Finn has a weekly sports media column for the Globe that's always a good read (no direct link that I can find).



6) RedSox.com
The official site of the Boston Red Sox. Works great on the iPhone!

7) Mike Reiss' ESPNBoston blog
It's no exaggeration to say that Reiss has been a trailblazer in mainstream media sports blogging. He's been at the bleeding edge using new media in his coverage since 2004 or 2005, when he first launched "Reiss' Pieces" for the MetroWest Daily News. Reiss then brought the blog with him to the Globe, where he worked from 2005 until earlier this month. Now Reiss plies his trade at the recently launched ESPNBoston.com

Reiss' coverage of the Patriots is, without question, the best in Boston.

8) The Rap Sheet
This is the blog of Ian Rapoport, the new Boston Herald beat reporter. Longtime Herald writer Karen Guergian also chimes in on occasion.

The reporting is good, and the look-and-feel is as well. The Rap Sheet incorporates a photo or graphic into nearly every post, which is almost never a bad thing.

9) Extra Bases
This is Boston.com's Red Sox blog. It's updated frequently on game days and during the games themselves.

10) Extra Points
Boston.com's Patriots blog has lost some of its oomph--and changed its name--with the recent departure of Reiss, but Christopher L. Gasper's reporting is very good.

As a personal side note, I once successfully pitched Gasper on a Malden High School boys' soccer story back when he was writing for the twice-weekly Globe North section, and recorded a phone interview for an episode of my long-since-defunct Around Town Sports podcast. Gasper certainly has the chops to lead the Globe's football coverage now, and I'm thrilled for him!

Falling into Place

No, I'm not ready to declare that the season is over yet. Nor am I ready to say that the Red Sox are a lock for the playoffs. But what I will tell you is that they went a LONG way over the past few days at solidifying their chances for a deep playoff run. Two weeks ago, I wasn't sure this would be the case with Beckett struggling mightily, Buchholz looking good but having little track record behind him and the Sox bats wavering between scoring 10+ runs a game and none.

Fast forward to Saturday night's gritty five plus inning gem by Beckett (with the Sox bats erupting in the third inning for nine runs) followed by game one of yesterday's double header where poor Matt Garza pitched his heart out, only to get kicked in the crotch by Ortiz and Pedroia in the seventh. This combined with Lester's "ice water in the veins" eight innings of shutout ball in game two was a real shot in the arm.

So why am I so jazzed all of a sudden? Well, the Sox have a four game lead on Texas and Tampa Bay is all but eliminated from the Wild Card. And the Sox still have an outside chance at catching the Yanks (I know, I know, I sound like Kyle Flaherty here). Most importantly, Boston is looking like the dangerous offensive AND defensive team that we thought they might be at the beginning of the season.

With Beckett, Lester and now Buchholz as a solid 1-2-3 punch (yes, it would be great to see two more solid starts out of Beckett), we're in good shape to match up with the "always hapless in the playoffs" Anaheim Angels of LA. And who knows, lightning may might rise up and strike Detroit who matches up pretty well with the Yanks and deliver us an ALCS party with Detroit and Boston as the lucky entrants. The bullpen is now back to form with a much needed shot in the arm from Billy Wagner and you have weapons like Martinez, Gathright, Green or Kotchman coming off the bench. Not a bad place to be. Most importantly, all the key guys are healthy (yup, just knocked on wood after saying that).

Am I being a bit cocksure? Yes I am. But hey, I've seen Francona work his magic under more adverse conditions. I like where we are and feel bullish going into October. Who knows, this could be the year where we do actually see Red Sox, Celtics and Patriots world championships in the same year.


image courtesy: http://www.maniacworld.com/

Show Your Colors

As the official NFL season kicks off this week, I dug out my Patriots jersey to get ready for Monday night. I started to recall how I came upon the jersey and thought I'd see how our crew thinks.

When you decide you're going to buy a team jersey (in any sport), what's your M.O.? Do you go with a current player? Do you choose "blank"? Do you avoid it altogether given the transient nature of superstars in all sports these days?

If I'm going to shell out the clams for a real player jersey (not just a t-shirt), I like to dig out the "old school" vets that are reminiscent of what I recall as a kid. I also like to go with a little bit obscure star. In fact my first choice for a Patriots jersey was Mosi Tatupu, but I couldn't find one. Steve Grogan was a solid 2nd choice, although a more accurate representation would have been one covered in grass stains on the back. What's your jersey of choice and how'd you decide?