Sunday, January 23, 2011
Conference Championship Predictions
But before I turn my sites onto the games I did watch the Pats/Jets game again, finally, late last night. In the end the Pats game plan was solid, for the first two drives. But I really believe that only coming away with three points after driving the ball like they did just gave the Jets the momentum. You get 14 or even 10 points during those drives and it's a completely different ball game.
The fact that Patrick Chung has the authority to make that fake punt call if the situation calls for it is the definition of Belichick's system. He prides himself on teaching his players how to shift into situations. You can't be excited about the Pats system when they win and then slam it when they lose. You're either on the boat or off. I watched that play at least thirty times...Chung was right. It was the right call. It just didn't go his way. Again, that works out, even if they don't end up scoring on the drive, it's a four point game at the half.
Matt Light will be gone next season, unfortunately. But watch him in that game and you can see that he's lost at least a half-a-step. I love me some Matty Light, but that ride is over.
Brady played the entire second half with a stress fracture in his foot. It wasn't the reason they lost, but for those that ragged on his Bieberish looks this season and called him weak...really? Really?
Taking all that time to score that TD in the 2nd half was a killer. Reminded me of McNabb in the Super Bowl against us. They just looked beaten down and exhausted. And by that point they were.
For all the talk and obnoxiousness, the Jets had an awesome variation of the Tampa-2 defense, mixed it up well, Sanchez was not their enemy, Holmes catch was ridiculous...they played well overall, hats off.
Respect aside for their play, a coach should NEVER run into an end zone to congratulate his players after a TD unless there are all zeros on the clock. That was the most classless act by a team team that has redefined the term. The Jets have officially pushed out the Steelers as the number one disliked team by this guy.
Pats should be a clear favorite to win the Super Bowl next year...but we all know what that means.
OK, Pats/Jets 2010 is officially over.
Packers at Bears
Wow, the oldest rivalry in football meeting for all the marbles. A cold day in Chicago with some old school footballers like Rodgers, Kuhn, Peppers, Hester...I can't wait for this game to get going and see what these teams have in store. And the team that survives the mistakes of their mistake-prone coaches will surely be the one heading to Dallas in two weeks time. And in my mind McCarthy is the one to take the title of "Least Mistakes Made".
Chuck said it early on, the Pack are for real and most likely were the best all around team as the Playoffs started. I don't see that changing this week, but it will be a really tight and fun game.
Packers 24-Bears 17
Jets at Steelers
How do you root for either of these teams? The visitors are a group of classless fools who shoot off at the mouth, but also delivered when they needed it the most. The home team is led by a man whom I would never want to meet in person, but a coach who is super cool and super good. Nobody wins during this AFC Championship, especially us Pats fans.
Putting aside emotion though and just looking at these teams AND what the Jets did against the Pats o-line on Sunday I just can't imagine Pittsburgh winning this game. But then again, Sanchez turns back into himself and Pittsburgh eliminates the mistakes the Patriots had and then you might see a game. Ugh, this is worse than Sophie's Choice. So I'm going to close my eyes, hold my nose, and type the next line.
Jets 27 - Steelers 24
I feel horrible again....
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Divisional Round Preview and Predictions
A few things that we will see, no matter the game:
--Better officiating than the regular season thanks to an extra official and simply a culling of the bad officials. This not only means less interference calls, but also they let the guys in the trenches play a bit more loosely. Watch the OL dominate a bit more than in typical games, especially in Pittsburgh and Chicago.
--Some really stupid coaching moves, particularly if we get to see the new OT rules come into play. I was amazed at how poor the coaches were last weekend, particularly Payton, but now we get to see fairly new coaches under immense pressure in really tough situations. Can you say poor clock management?
--A surprise team begin to gel before our eyes and potentially use it for a run to the Super Bowl. Think about the Giants in '07 (sorry, I know, it's a horrible memory for Pats fans like myself) who came into the playoffs with some confidence in a close loss to the Patriots and really gelled during this round, especially their defense. Could we see the same thing with the Packers or the Jets?
--Two "underdogs" covering the spread.
--A lot of money heading to the public teams (Packers, Bears, Patriots)…I mean a LOT of money. This weekend is a huge gambling weekend, to the point where I promise myself one year I'll watch it in Vegas, who's with me?
Let's take a look at the games.
Ravens at Steelers (-3)
This is basically a pick-em when you are a three-point favorite at home, and it's no wonder, these teams have played so many times that there really will be no surprises. The question will be whether Mendenhall can run through a hole properly and if Ed Reed can shut down Wallace. Let's examine both of these a bit.
Watch Mendenhall play in any game and he will sometimes simply stop running in the hole, before he's been hit. He is anticipating a hit at this point, but by stopping he ends up losing yardage or simply gaining one yard. If he kept his legs he'd probably end up with 3-4 yards and keep the Steelers out of long third down scenarios. This is something to watch throughout the game and it can certainly be something the Ravens defense can use to their advantage.
Speaking of the Ravens defense we can all agree that Ed Reed is SICK. He's basically the definition of a shut-down safety. You know he is there the entire time and you must consider him no matter what. The question I have is whether Big Ben can get to Wallace, especially in the slot. Now last week the Colts threw to Wayne once, but even worse, they didn't move him around to take him off Revis, or slip him into the slot. Pittsburgh has a much better coach and I think they do some really unique things to open up those receivers. Ed Reed or not, Ben has been there before, Tomlin has been there before, they are at home.
Pittsburgh 16 - Baltimore 15
Packers at Falcons (-1.5)
Wow, as a gambler this line is crazy. It opened at -3 and has moved down throughout the week and as of this morning the money line was taken off the board. Means a lot of money is going to the Pack (going back to the "public team" definition above). But I also think that people are overlooking Atlanta and Green Bay has become THE sexy pic for these playoffs. I'm not disagreeing, Rodgers is fantastic and at the end of the day it's the quarterbacks we need to look at in this game…or that is what the folks at ESPN would say. I'd rather look at the lines when Green Bay has the ball.
The Falcons' run defense is HORRIBLE. Watch their last five games and I'd argue I could get a first down on that defense. It's a bit strange that they actually got worse later on in the season since their schedule actually got easier. I'm not really sure why this has become the case, but it seems to me that it is scheming rather than personnel. The DL is not getting the help they need from the LBs, they don't bring the corners up to help plug the run, and overall they seem either hurt or just tired. Unless they come up with an amazing new scheme I'm seeing a BIG day for James Starks running the ball.
But it's not just the Atlanta defense for the reason Starks will rumble, it's the Green Bay offensive line. Take a moment during today's game and after a run replay it, watch how they seal off the middle or the edges, depending on the play. Especially Daryn Colledge, the guard. And if the OL plays well on running plays it makes sense that they will run the ball well, but here is where I REALLY like the Green Bay offensive line…pass protection when the receivers are covered. They hold onto their blocks so well, which helps Rodgers, but also opens up the field for him to scramble. Rodgers averages 8.1 yards per attempted scramble. That's a big reason the Pack will win this game, but it's a coin toss and I say we see our first OT game.
Packers 31 - Atlanta 28 in overtime
Seahawks at Bears (-10)
Why did the Seahawks have a shot last week? Three things:
- Home Crowd
- Saints were on their 8th string running back
- Hasselbeck is awesome when blitzed
The Bears defense is really, really good. Why? Julius Peppers, obviously. Brian Urlacher, obviously. And the mind of Lovie Smith, obviously. This team doesn't need to blitz. Meaning that Hasselbeck is going to have to squeeze too many throws into coverage. Perhaps Seattle goes no-huddle like they did in their first game at Chicago, but even then I see the Bears dominating up front and their healthy secondary blanketing coverage.
The more and more I think about this game the more I like the -10 line.
Bears 34 - Seahawks 17
"We play for 60 minutes. We play for 60 minutes."
Monday, December 13, 2010
Is It Just Me... Or is Logan Mankins the REAL MVP this Year?
![]() |
| New England Patriots All Pro Guard, Logan Mankins |
Yes, part of this has to do with the emergence of the law firm aka Green-Ellis stepping up his game. And it doesn't hurt to have a second "possession receiver" in the form of Deion Branch. The growth of tight ends Hernandez and Gronkowski as they shake off their rookie jitters also contributes. But at the end of the day, I think many of the commentators and prognosticators have overlooked the importance of having one of the best right guards in Patriots history (second only to John Hannah of course) back in the fold.
Thoughts?
Image courtesy http://www.patriotsgab.com/
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Why I'm Not Thrilled about the Crawford Signing.

First, let's get this out of the way: Carl Crawford is, at the very least, a good baseball player. In some ways, he's a very good baseball player. I'm not trying to take anything away from him.
But he has never been a great baseball player. Not ever. Not so far. Yet the Red Sox just signed him for great-player money and a contract that is probably two years too long, if we're only looking at performance on the field. Let me give you a few reasons why:
- Item: Crawford just finished his age-28 season, which means that we've probably already seen him at his best. He may well sustain that level for several more years, which will certainly be valuable to the Sox, but it's unrealistic to expect him to raise that level, or to raise it by much. He won't get faster, he probably won't translate his speed into 70-steal seasons, and he probably won't raise his walk rate or his home run rate by enough to make a big difference. At this point, he is who he is, for better and for worse.
- Item: Crawford plays left field, which means that he must -- absolutely MUST -- hit the crap out of the ball to justify great-player money. Yet he's never cracked the top 10 in the American League for either on-base percentage or slugging percentage. (Contrast this to Adrian Gonzalez, playing at another slugger position, whose career OBP is 31 points better, and whose career SLG is 63 points better.) Crawford's been in the top 10 in total bases once, and he's about 15-20 extra-base hits per year below truly elite numbers. Leading the league in steals and triples isn't enough to make up for this.
- Item: Crawford is clearly well above average as a defender, with superior range, a sure glove, and enough assists to tell you that he throws pretty well. But good left fielders will never be worth as much defensively as similarly good defenders in center or right. If Crawford put up identical numbers, but as a center fielder, it would mean substantially more.
A lot of discussion among this group has centered on Crawford's personality traits: Is he a focused "grinder"? Is he misdirected? Is he a loafer or a malcontent in the locker room? To all of that I answer: Who knows? And who knows how he'll react as a newcomer to a club with a strong culture and several outspoken leaders? If pressed, my guess is that he'll be fine -- less of a clubhouse gem than, say, Victor Martinez or Kevin Millar, but also much less of a head case than Manny Ramirez.
I understand the economics of the game, and no doubt Crawford will put more butts in the seats at Fenway, and get more people to tune in on television. The financial structure of the franchise requires continual sellouts at Fenway, and lots of ad revenue from broadcast venues. So his contract might make sense from the perspective of selling more tickets. It just doesn't make sense from the standpoint of his performance on the field.
In this off-season, Adrian Gonzalez is the steak. Crawford is just the sizzle.
~
(Image source.)
Monday, September 27, 2010
Re-Awakening the Red Sox "Dynasty" (and this blog)
Other than a somewhat promotional post about the Ultimate Fan Experience, BigP has been a pretty quiet corner of the internet for the last 45 days. We were busy. Life got in the way. It's summertime, what do you expect? No need for excuses, but it's time to get back down to business.
Monday, August 30, 2010
The Ultimate Red Sox Experience? Certainly The Ultimate Pitch
Rather than sweat out each game, I'm enjoying them a bit more and catching the nuances of baseball. It's been a joy. Then again, I'd trade it all in for a healthy team in first place...ahhh, there's the old Kyle. Nothing beats the experience of a good run in September/October. Speaking of experience, check out the great email I got today:
Appreciate the contest? I LOVE the contest, especially since I live in Austin now, so it would be that much sweeter. But as a long time marketer who kind of dabbles in this "social media" stuff I also loved the pitch. Kudos to Selena Narayanasamy, the Director of Social Media Outreach at BlueGlass. Not sure if Selena knew some of the folks behind this blog like Aaron, Tim, Bryan, Adam, and Jim...but let's just say they are a bit of a big deal in the social media world.
Hey Kyle!
How are you? I was wandering from Red Sox blog to Red Sox blog, and came across yours listed in the blogroll section of OverTheMonster. I know Red Sox fans are pretty die-hard (especially when it has to do with the Yankees), so I thought you might appreciate this contest that Overstock.com is holding, called "The Ultimate Red Sox Experience."
You get a chance to win tickets to see the Red Sox pummel the Yankees on October 2nd- including round trip air-fare,a pre-game VIP tour and the chance to turn the numbers on the Green Monster scoreboard during one inning. If you're interested in knowing more there's also a video that goes over the details.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
How Much Do You Love Your Team?
"If one of our sons became a player in the MLB and was on the Yankees right now, what team would you root for?"
It was a no brainer for me, I would keep my loyalty for my team, the Red Sox, but hope for my son to go 4-4 each game. She then threw me another doozy:
"If one of our sons was drafted by the Colts or Steelers (my two least favorite NFL teams) in MSG would you wear a Colts hat to celebrate on ESPN?"
This one was much harder for me. On one hand what is the harm in just putting on the team hat during this great moment? On the other hand the Colts and Steelers are pure forms of evil to me. But in the end I said I could wear the hat during the draft, but would never wear one during an actual game.
Now it was my turn:
"If one of our sons was given a full ride to play for Notre Dame would you cheer for the Irish?"
I believe the look I got was enough of an answer...neither of our sons would ever set foot in South Bend, unless they were on the visiting team.
What say you?
Friday, July 23, 2010
Battah, Battah, (flash) Swing Battah...
This is pretty funny. Hat tip to friend, Jerry for forwarding. Pay close attention to the gal behind the plate.
Monday, June 14, 2010
An instant classic
Friday, June 11, 2010
Alert: Tong War in Progress!
But I'll be honest, I want it to come in the third overtime of Game 7, as both teams crank up the effort to play both harder and smarter across the last three games of this Finals.
What about you? Would you prefer a quicker kill in Game 6? Or risk a heartbreaking Game 7 loss in order to see something transcendent?
Monday, June 07, 2010
Reason #2,348 Rajon Rondo is Awesome
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Perfect SHAME
However, last night's Detroit Tigers game has to go down as an utter shame. Armando Galarraga's perfect game.... Well, it was still perfect. Kind of. Without rehashing the game (who hasn't read about it or seen the highlights?) - Jim Joyce blew it. He made a call that was maybe, almost close with two outs in the ninth to break up a perfect game. A PERFECT GAME. The irony of it being that Galarraga himself covered first base and caught the ball, beating the runner by about a foot and a half - but the play was called safe. Who didn't say out loud 'Wait, wait?' upon seeing in? Unreal. And the call was so confident and assertive - which I understand is part of the job. But come on - it almost felt like he made up his mind before the play that anything close was safe.
I give Jim Joyce full credit for fessing up right away. But I still question the mentality of an umpire to make a call so assertively.
Putting myself in his shoes (which I did many times last night before falling asleep), I kept coming to the conclusion that anything close has to be called an out. It just seems like human nature. Admittedly that 'conclusion' of mine is flawed. As an official of any sport, your job is to remain neutral and have no emotional attachment to the game. I wonder how possible that is though. I could never umpire a Yankees/Sox game, referee a Lakers/Celtics game, or Pats/Jets game. As much as I would like to think that if it was my job I could remain neutral in that role, any close plays aren't going to be hard calls to make. Am I right?
Regardless... there was a perfect game pitched last night. Everyone involved was graceful in handling an obviously imperfect ending. But the history books will only be marked with a perfect SHAME. And we can only wonder why.
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Bring it on: Celtics vs. Lakers (round 12)
That bad taste was partially removed when the Lakers dominated the Magic in last years NBA finals. But just like the Red Sox needed to go through the Yankees in their epic 7 game series in 2004 before finally removing the Curse of the Bambino, so too do the Lakers need to exorcise their demons of 2008 be vanquishing the Celtics in this years battle royale. The problem is, the Lakers are facing an even hotter Celtic team this year with a healthy Big
But, that's the beauty of the playoffs and the reason you don't play them on paper. On any given day, any team can win. And of course that fact has led to a little trash talk going on on Twitter between the fans of LA and the good people of Boston (former citizens included). To that end, we have all decided to put our money where our mouths are (I think) and have decided to put a little wager in place.
Here's what I'm proposing...
If the Lakers win, Team LA (members below) will pick a restaurant in LA (or somewhere convenient for the five of them) with Team Boston footing the bill (not to exceed $50/person including tax/tip). The members of Team Boston will ALSO have to don a Laker-themed avatar for exactly one week following the final game of the series.
- Tom Humbarger
- Liz Phillips
- Bennett
- Jason Kapler
- TBA (unless you guys want to go unbalanced)
An acknowledgement in the comments section below will serve as validation that you have accepted this friendly little wager. You all ready to rock?!?
Finals predictions?

I'm not asking what you WANT to see happen. I'm asking what you think WILL happen.
Tell us now: winning team, number of games, Finals MVP. No fence-sitting, please.
(Photo source.)
Friday, May 14, 2010
How good are the Celtics?
Item: Mike Brown might not be able to coach his way out of a paper bag.
Item: Cleveland sports pressure -- and defeatism -- is like it was for Red Sox fans pre-2004, but multiplied across three major sports. And the Cavaliers succumbed to it (again, especially in Game 5).
Unanswered questions for you to address in the comments: Just how good is this Celtics team? And do they have a chance to hang with Orlando?
Your thoughts?
Monday, May 03, 2010
Too early?
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Nielsen Has to Be Wrong

Lots of chatter today about Nielsen's sentiment report listing the Cleveland Indians as the most hated baseball team. Here is the official list from the WSJ:
Well, I for one disagree. Here is my own top 5, at least (not just who I dislike, but what I think the real answer is out there in the public, based on volume of people who hate teams) - what's yours?The Hatred Index
Using an algorithm designed by Nielsen Co. that measures positive and negative reactions on the Internet, here are the 10 most despised teams in baseball (scale is -5 to 5).
Team Score 1. Cleveland Indians 0.9 2. Boston Red Sox 1.1 3. Cincinnati Reds 1.5 4 Houston Astros 1.8 5. New York Yankees 1.8 6. Washington Nationals 1.9 7. Chicago White Sox 2 8. Baltimore Orioles 2 9. New York Mets 2.3 10. Los Angeles Dodgers 2.4
1. NYY
2. Phillies
3. Red Sox (Yes, I think there are many out there who dislike the Sawx - people hate winners)
4. White Sox
5. Mets
Who do you think is really at the top of the most hated? How about most loved?
Photo credit: Post406 via Flickr
So far, so neutral?
So . . . where are we headed?
Saturday, April 03, 2010
Friday, April 02, 2010
Boston Area Red Sox Tweetups

Next Friday, April 9, will be our first official in season Tweetup for the out of town game of the Red Sox at KC. Jerry Remy's new Sports Bar & Grill will be the venue. Jerry's business partners have been very supportive and are arranging for a portion of proceeds from food/beverage sales that night to go to the Jimmy Fund. Already a great crew will be there.
We're also divising thoughts on future tweetups, involvement of philanthropy, etc. Do you have any thoughts or suggestions on ways to improve and continue events this season? If not in Boston, what have been good events in your city and what made them great?

