The facts are clear, the Patriots had a better chance of winning the game by going for it on 4th and 2 than if they punted.
In fact it is a 78% winning probability going for it on 4th and 2 versus a 70% WP when punting.
Here is the math.
Still hurts though, huh?
G18: Orioles at Red Sox, 1:30 PM
3 hours ago